Carpenter vs Cashier: which is more exposed to AI?
52 points apart. These are not comparable risk profiles.
Cashier sits at 72% time-weighted AI exposure against 20% for Carpenter, a 52-point gap driven by the 48% of cashier work time that current models can already substitute outright. Carpenter holds a larger human-critical core — 67% of the role's time sits in work like "execute finish carpentry and trim" that models score poorly on. The two sit in different families — Trades & Construction and Sales & Retail — so any move between them is a career change, not a lateral step.
Seven dimensions, side by side.
What actually creates the gap.
Cashiers spend 48% of their time-weighted week on tasks a current model can produce end-to-end, against 16% for Carpenters. The single largest contributor is "process card payments", graded at 90% and worth 10% of the role's time. That one task accounts for more of the gap than any difference in seniority, tooling, or industry.
- Handle invoices and paperwork76% · 3% time
- Estimate materials and quotes72% · 6% time
- Order materials70% · 3% time
- Draft simple plans and layouts68% · 4% time
- Execute finish carpentry and trim6% · 20% time
- Frame structures on site8% · 28% time
- Fabricate custom pieces12% · 12% time
- Process card payments90% · 10% time
- Scan and ring up items88% · 30% time
- Enter returns and receipts84% · 8% time
- Assist customers needing extra help12% · 4% time
- Resolve customer disputes26% · 8% time
- Spot-check fraud and theft30% · 4% time
These roles share no capability dimension where both score above 55. A move in either direction means rebuilding the core of the job rather than redeploying it — expect the transition to run on retraining, not on transferable experience.
| DIMENSION | CARPENTER | CASHIER |
|---|---|---|
| Manual | 94 | 52 |
| Procedural | 52 | 88 |
| Creative | 42 | 8 |
Neither role lists the other as a mapped adjacent career, and the capability profiles sit 31 points apart on average. Treat a move between them as a genuine career change with a retraining cost, not as a hedge against AI exposure.
Score your own exposure in 8 questions →Common questions.
Is Carpenter or Cashier more at risk from AI?
Cashier. It scores 72% time-weighted AI exposure against 20% for Carpenter — a 52-point gap. 48% of cashier work time is already fully substitutable by current models, versus 16% for Carpenters.
Which pays more, Carpenter or Cashier?
Carpenter, by roughly $27k at the median ($56k versus $29k). Note that the higher-paying role here is also the less AI-exposed one, which matters if you are weighing pay against durability.
Can a carpenter switch to being a cashier?
Neither role lists the other as a mapped adjacent career, and the capability profiles sit 31 points apart on average. Treat a move between them as a genuine career change with a retraining cost, not as a hedge against AI exposure.
Which role is growing faster, Carpenter or Cashier?
Carpenter, at 4% projected ten-year growth versus -11% — a 15-point difference. Growth and AI exposure are separate signals: a role can grow in headcount while the content of the work is substantially rewritten.